Take a Senate Seat From MAGA? Or, Back a Candidate Who Cannot Win?
Every state get two Senators, whether you are California or Montana. Why risk such an important seat on a candidate who cannot win?
The core story of Montana’s current election cycle, which has a crucial U.S. Senate seat up for grabs, in a wide-open field, is framed by this:
“Just two minutes before the filing deadline, U.S. Sen. Steve Daines withdrew from the 2026 U.S. Senate race Wednesday. … Daines’ decision to withdraw promptly before the filling deadline appears to have been intended to dissuade anyone — except his chosen successor, Montana U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme — from joining the race. … State campaign filing records show Alme, who has never previously held a statewide office, registering his campaign eight minutes before the filing period ended.”1
Montana Republicans were pissed.2 Well-known state politicos, like Secretary of State Christ Jacobsen, would have gladly run for Daines’ seat. But, they were denied their shot, because Daines snubbed his local party to fix the race for Kurt Alme, a MAGA cultist who served one single, year as Trump’s hand-picked U.S. Attorney for Montana, in preparation for this stunt.
Montana is a historically purple state.3 Statewide offices, particularly recent Governors and Senators, have commonly been Democrats. So, you might think Democrats would see a civil war inside the MTGOP as a golden opportunity to seize a Senate seat from MAGA.
But, you would be wrong.
Former U.S. Senator Jon Tester was the last Democrat to hold statewide office out here under the Big Sky. He was the leader of the Democratic Party in Montana, alongside former Governor Steve Bullock, another purple Democrat.
Both Tester and Bullock built their Montana political careers, as Democrats, by appealing to the solutions-oriented center between both major parties.
Along the way, their state party organization, the Montana Democrats — typified in very recent years by Rep. Zooey Zephyr (D - Missoula)4 — regularly opposed and confronted their own elected statewide leaders. Loud county party activists repeatedly called out their elected officials willingness to compromise, cut deals, and win incremental, bipartisan victories, instead of die on unwinnable hills.
When Daines’ race-fixing created a chance this year to take a Senate seat from MAGA, Tester chose to put his political connections behind an independent. He decided not to risk this opportunity on whomever might emerge from a primary process largely dominated by far left county-party activists. Just like Daines, Tester snubbed his local party.
Instead, as someone whose own political organization won three statewide elections to the U.S. Senate, while running as a Democrat from Montana, he said “I’m going to continue to try to help push the Democratic Party in a way that will hopefully allow them to win some races moving forward.”5
Note: a deeper issue here is how political power works in the age of mass and social media. Do party organizations even matter anymore? Why do these particular associations get free, privileged ballot access, when the Constitution says nothing about them? But, that’s a topic for another time.
The independent Tester chose to back is former Univ. of Montana President, Seth Bodnar. Bodnar is a former U.S. Army Green Beret, raised by two public school teachers, whose banner issue is protecting Montana’s public lands, and keeping them from privatization. Montana’s huge tourism industry is dependent on public access to our vast natural beauty, which America’s wealthiest keep trying to buy and privatize. Public lands are a hot, and widely resonant, issue in Montana. One that strikes deep inside our working class economy.
Bodnar’s platform6 is thick with mainstream meat and potatoes. His veteran status carries major weight in rural Montana culture. He has a bigger campaign war chest than his Republican opponent, and he holds major endorsements from Montana cultural leaders and political figures on both sides of the aisle.
It is also true that while Bodnar is known to be personally and professionally supportive of LGBTQ people, his campaign is largely silent on this issue.
In terms of social issues typically used to drive voter turnout, Montana already guarantees a woman’s right to choose, directly in our State Constitution.7 That said, Montana has also only ever sent one woman to Congress, Jeanette Rankin, first in 1917, then again, decades later, in 1941.8 Rankin was the very first woman ever elected to the U.S. Congress. A long, long time ago.
For their part, the Montana Democrats chose to run Alani Bankhead for Senate. Bankhead is a “leadership coach” with no campaign or elected experience, no major endorsements, no compelling background story, and almost no campaign funding; nor does the state party have much, if any, money for her. While she did win her primary, the Teton County Democrats (county seat: Choteau) recently passed a resolution of “no confidence” in her. Bankhead moved to Montana just three years ago, from DC. She has highly problematic views, for a Democrat, in circulation, such as a coaching video in which she asserts “ … if you’re poor right now, it’s because you decided you wanted to be poor.”9
Given she has no history as a Montanan, Bankhead apparently saw moving to a rural state, to make a run for Senate, as an opportunity to show leadership. Yet, given the realities of money, advertising, and rural Montana culture, Bankhead has zero chance of being elected to the U.S. Senate here. Bodnar does.
Her fans want Bodnar to drop out, claiming “he is spoiling her race.” But, why would he? He has better endorsements, more money than any candidate, including Alme, and is ahead in the polls with bipartisan support. But, he loses if Bankhead remains in the race.
She is the spoiler, not he.
Anyone who has lived in Montana for more than, say, three years, knows this.10 At least if they are being honest. It does not take polling to prove how money and culture drive elections, but polls show it anyhow.11 Bankhead is already behind Bodnar and Alme, and losing ground. Yet, the same polls show that if she steps back, Bodnar pulls up neck and neck with Alme, or ahead, and can take Daines’ seat from MAGA. Alme is neither popular nor well-known, and his sponsor, Daines, angered his local party. Again, just like Tester.
So, this race boils down to two questions.
Does purple Montana want to take a Senate seat away from MAGA?
Or, will hardcore Dems circle their wagons, and spoil this election, when they are already at risk of slipping back into a legislative super-minority?
There is a big difference between winning an election on an issue, and working for an issue, once you have won your seat in Congress. Both ways lead to the same seat, but one of them is far harder. Ask anyone who has been elected.
Montana Democrats can absolutely win statewide elections on jobs, schools, public lands, and the environment. Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, Melcher, Metcalf, Mansfield, and more are all proof of this. Montanans will also do the right thing, and protect personal freedom, on controversial social issues, like a woman’s right to choose abortion. Article II, Section 36, of our constitution, protecting this right, was voted in, by statewide ballot initiative, in 2024. The same year we re-elected Trump.12
But, Montana is a purple state, not blue. No statewide candidate is ever going to win here without big inroads into my birthplace and hometown, Billings, our largest and most conservative city, much less Kalispell and Great Falls.
Pulling out bullhorns and screaming at people does not win votes in places like Billings, the way it might in Michigan, Oregon, or New York. Or Missoula.
Democrats will never vote in lockstep like Republicans. We have to herd the cats and win on broadly popular issues.
So, I hope rural Progressive activists start thinking of things bigger than their towns and counties, when it comes to statewide and national elections. When the stakes are as big as the United States Senate, we need coalitions big enough to win votes in “Billings,” too. Else, get comfy with MAGA.
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“As filings close, Republican Steve Daines withdraws from U.S. Senate race,” Tom Lutey, Montana Free Press, March 4, 2026.
https://montanafreepress.org/2026/03/04/republican-u-s-senate-steve-daines-withdraws/
Al Olszewski, a former Republican State Senator, party activist, and candidate for statewide office, described Daines’ actions as a betrayal of the party.
Party control of Montana state government, Ballotpedia.
https://ballotpedia.org/Party_control_of_Montana_state_government
Montana State Rep. Zooey Zephyr (D - Missoula) is a brave voice from far outside the mainstream culture of Montana. For better, and for worse, Montana Democrats have allowed themselves to be framed by her voice, to the exclusion of more traditional Democratic political priorities (e.g., jobs, schools, etc.)
https://ballotpedia.org/Zooey_Zephyr
“Tester slams Democrats, voices support for potential independent in Senate race”
Montana Public Radio | By Shaylee Ragar
Published January 16, 2026 at 7:38 AM MST
Seth Bodnar’s Platform.
https://www.sethformontana.com/Platform
Mont. Const., Art. II Dec. of Rights, Sec. 36 “Right to make decisions about pregnancy”
https://mca.legmt.gov/bills/mca/title_0000/article_0020/part_0010/sections_index.html
PoliticalGraveyard.com | Montana offices
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For the record, I was born and raised in Montana. And, while I lived in Portland, Oregon, for most of 36 years, I lived back in Montana again for two years in the early 90s, and have traveled back here to visit friends and family, and manage a family business, every single year I have been away.
270 to Win | 2026 Polls: Montana Senate
Which makes sense, once you know that Montanans have such a visceral devotion to the right to privacy that we installed it as Article II, Section 10.